Buffalo Bills (10-4) at New England Patriots (11-3) – Over/Under Line : 36.5
Week 16 of the NFL season sees the New England Patriots host the Buffalo Bills in a Week 4 rematch of the AFC East’s top contenders.
The Pats can lock up another regular season AFC East Championship with a win on Sunday…
while the Bills would need a win in this matchup and a New England loss next week for Buffalo to win the division.
Both the Bills and Pats bounced back from Week 13 losses with wins a week ago.
Buffalo will be looking to extend their impressive 6-1 record away from home…
But…. Gillette Stadium in New England on a late December Sunday promises to be the ultimate test for young Josh Allen and the Bills.
The Over/Under line has been set to 36.5 points in this matchup, we are riding with the under, and here is exactly why.
Top defenses clash
One huge factor that we loved about this matchup was the elite defensive battle.
The first matchup between these teams this season ended with just 26 points overall, and these defenses have just improved since.
On paper, the Patriots and Bills are the first and second best defenses in the NFL.
New England is 1st in the league when it comes to “points scored against”, Buffalo is 2nd.
New England is 1st in “offensive yardage allowed”, Buffalo is 3rd. Both teams are in the top 8 of every relevant team defensive stat recorded.
These top defenses have had a massive impact on Over/Under results this season.
So far this season, the UNDER has hit in 78.6% of Bills games (1st in NFL), while the UNDER has hit in 64.3% of Patriots games (5th in NFL).
Non-explosive offensive matchup
Although the line of 37.5 might seem a bit low, it is due to the lack of firepower on the offensive side of the ball for both the Bills and the Patriots.
Both New England (5.05 y/p) and Buffalo (5.21 y/p) average under the league average of 5.49 yards per play, indicating a huge lack of big yardage plays by both offenses.
Not only do these teams fail to move the ball quickly, but they chew up a lot of time as well.
Both the Patriots (6th in T.O.P.) and the Bills (10th T.O.P.) are in the top 10 in the league when it comes to “time of possession”.
This is a perfect storm for under bettors, who will love to see two teams who use a lot of clock go back and forth.
Timing and significance of game
All of the small details about this game indicate that this will likely be a low scoring game, including the timing of the matchup.
This game is taking place just weeks before playoff time, and both of these teams will be involved in postseason play.
Considering this fact, the likelihood of this game becoming a scoring shootout drops drastically.
Neither team is expected to pull out any kind of exotic or aggressive offensive looks in this one.
Instead, both teams are expected to put on an efficient offensive performance that does not risk turning the ball over to one of these two highly respected defenses.