There are plenty of the do’s and don’ts in the sports betting world, such as never changing unit size or to bet with the sharp money moves;
But what is to be said about betting on a home team in college basketball?
When looking to gain a betting edge on a college basketball team playing at home, the first thing to find out is how often that team wins at home.
Mathematically speaking, the home team wins 67.7% of college basketball games.
Out of 353 NCAA Division I basketball schools, only 27 have not won 50% or more of their home games since 2010.
28 teams have gone on to win 85% or better of their home games over the same period.
Clearly there is some sort of home court advantage, but how big is this advantage, and how does one take advantage of a home cout team?
This article gets into the nitty-gritty details of home court advantage, finding out how valuable home court advantage is.
For all statistical analysis, a datapool containing info of ACC teams and their home records spanning from 2010-2019 was used.
We chose this conference because of the clear and consistent correlations that can be seen between home court advantage and winning basketball games.
For more data sets like the one we used, check our resources here. Teamrankings.com
College basketball favorites
Of our datapool dating back to 2010, ACC team went on to have an impressive 70% win ratio at home.
Teams like Duke (92.2%), UVA (87.7%), and UNC (87.8%) are elite at home, and will naturally skew these stats.
Teams near the bottom of the barrell are Boston College (54.4%), Wake Forest (57.3%), and Georgia Tech (63.1%).
Nonetheless, home teams are very obviously experiencing more success at home, especially when one considers that the same group of teams have a 41% win ratio away from home over the same time period.
After establishing the fact that there is some kind of advantage to playing at home, it’s time to break the home teams into one of two categories: home favorites or home underdogs.
College basketball favorites at home
The first type of home team we will break down is the home favorite.
These teams will be whichever team is considered the favorite heading into the game.
As expected, these teams fare quite well in these matchups, as they are both the favored team and the home team.
Our research has revealed that since 2010, ACC home favorites have won 81% of their games.
This is a heavily consistent set of data that is backed up by years of performances, which is a perfect type of trend to capitalize on as a bettor.
This type of consistency in the ACC is representative of similar trends throughout the country, as home favorites are one of the most reliable betting lines in the industry.
College basketball underdogs at home
There is a clear indication that teams usually perform better at home, raising the question “Just how influential is this home court advantage, and how reliable can it really be?
We put the home court advantage to the test by analysing the data from home teams who are playing as the underdog compared to underdogs playing home and away.
Our stats revealed that 34% ACC underdogs win at home, while 36% of ACC underdogs win overall, indicating that an underdog performs slightly better away from home.
Statistics like these shows that home court advantage does have its limitations.
According to these calculations, bettors should be looking to take advantage of a strong home team when they are considered the favorites,
as the home team does not pull off the upset as an underdog as frequently as one may assume.
Keep in mind that teams like UVA, UNC, and Duke are rarely underdogs at home, ruling these teams out of this statistic.
For example, since 2010, Duke has been an underdog just twice at home, with the Blue Devils losing both games (0-2).
How to take advantage of college basketball home teams
Considering all of the data and information, what is the best way to bet on home teams in college basketball?
As always, there is not one exact way to bet, but instead each game must be taken by a case-to-case basis.
With that understood, here are our top two best ways to bet on home college basketball teams.
Matching trends with stats
A bettor can’t go wrong when solid trends are backed up by statistics.
In this case, bettors should be looking for a college basketball matchup that features both a home team who is trending up and an away team with a negative trajectory trend.
These trends will then be backed up by stats, such as high point-per-game numbers from the home team to go along with low shooting percentages from the visitors.
These kinds of contrasting trends and stats is absolutely ideal for bettors, especially when home court advantage is being considered with both variables.
Go for heavy home team favorites
There are some teams who are just undeniably good at home, especailly when they are the favorites heading into the game.
We would highly recommend you going with some of these guys if the matchup is right.
Here is a snippet of the “Top home teams who are playing as the favorite” via college basketball via teamrankings.com.
- Kansas (132-8) – 94%
- Belmont (80-5) – 94%
- Kentucky (143-10) – 93%
- Duke (137-10) – 93%
- Texas Tech (72-7) – 91%
These teams are remarkably reliable when playing as the favorite at home.
If you can get one of these teams on a potentially profitable betting line at home, don’t be afraid to take the bet!