The NFL is the league that most bets are placed on every year in the United States.
Considering this popularity, it is essential to gain an edge when betting on football.
One aspect that can help predict an NFL matchup can be the home field advantage.
So how influential is this home field advantage, and how often does this home field advantage come into play?
Statistically speaking, home teams win 56.4% of NFL games.
Playing at home can have a much different influence depending on the teams and stadiums in question.
Some teams tactics, energy and playing styles are much more effective when playing at home, while other teams perform equally both home and away.
Home field advantage does not apply to all teams equally.
In seasons spanning from 2010-2019, there have been 10 teams who have a 60% home win percentage or better (New England Patriots (87.0%), Green Bay Packers (76.8%), Seattle Seahawks (75.0%), Pittsburgh Steelers (70.2%),
New Orleans Saints (68.7%), Baltimore Ravens (74.1%), Minnesota Vikings (64.6%), Denver Broncos (63.5%), Kansas City Chiefs (61.0%), Indianapolis Colts (61.0%)), while eight teams have failed to win at least 50% of their home games
(LA Rams (49.4%), Tennessee Titans (48.7%), Oakland Raiders (48.6%), NY Giants (48.1%), Washington Redskins (41.2%), Jacksonville Jaguars (39.7%), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (39.0%), Cleveland Browns (37.7%).
This shows just how wide the range is in the NFL when it comes to home field advantages. Before betting on the home team, make sure that this team is one that performs exceptionally well at home.
NFL home field variables
There are many different variables that can go into having a fortress of a home field.
Some teams strengths at home are different than others home perks. Here are a couple of the most noticeable home field advantages and how they can have an impact on the game.
One of the more obvious variables that can have an influence on a game is the geographical advantage that comes with certain home fields.
The weather usually does not have a massive impact on regular season games, but the closer it gets to playoff time, the colder the climate gets at certain stadiums.
The Bears, Patriots, and Packers are among a few teams who are notorious for their extreme winter weather when hosting games in December and January.
This kind of home field advantage is the most noticeable in the sportsbook betting lines when one of these geographically advantaged teams takes on a team who does not have to take on the elements year-round,
like the Miami Dolphins or Los Angeles Chargers.
The dome effect
There are currently eight teams who play their home games in a dome (Detroit Lions, Arizona Cardinals, Minnesota Vikings, Atlanta Falcons, Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Colts, New Orleans Saints).
The dome effect is real, and has a major influence on the outcome of many games. Some players perform better in domes, while others others seem to struggle statistically.
The Saints, Colts, and the Vikings are among the hardest teams to beat at home, with all three squads posting 66% home win percentages or better.
Sometimes a rowdy home crowd can have an impact on the game.
Visiting teams can have problems communicating snap counts, audibles, and other vital information when communication is obstructed with crowd noise, especially if the visiting team is being led by an inexperienced coach or quarterback.
Teams like the Kansas City Chiefs and the Seattle Seahawks are known to have some of the loudest crowds in the NFL, making both teams a tough rough trip for any team.
How to bet on NFL home teams
When looking to gain an edge by betting on the home team, there are a number of different techniques and strategies that can be implemented.
While we can’t guarantee that the following techniques will work, these are some tactics that are backed by statistical trends.
Take a look at a couple different ways you could lay wagers with the home team.
Roll with the elite home teams
There are levels to home field advantage in the NFL, and some teams simply rarely lose when playing on their own turf.
Since 2012, there have been four teams in the league to win 70% or more of their home games (Minnesota Vikings (73.2% win rate), Green Bay Packers (73.9% win rate), Seattle Seahawks (79.1% win rate), New England Patriots (86.3% win rate)**).
Teams in this elite group can be usually be trusted at home, as they have consistently proven to be statistically dominant at home.
All four of these teams have a 56% ratio or better when it comes to covering the spread as the home team as well, with the Minnesota Vikings (67.2%**) and New England Patriots (66.2%**) rounding out the top two.
**Since 2011/12 NFL Season
As always, some unexpected exceptions of these teams could always arise, such as the Patriots recent dip in form, injury to key players, or other highly influential variables;
But for the most part, there is value to be had with consistent performers at home.
Home underdogs (when value presents itself)
Underdogs are always valuable when sports betting due to the payout that comes with each successful bet.
While it does not happen with quality teams as often as we would like, there are a few valuable home underdog opportunities that will arise here and there.
Since the 2013/14 season, there are seven teams who win 50% or more of their home games when coming in as the betting underdog, which is more than enough winning to be profitable.
A list of these teams can be found here.