Betting on the basketball moneyline
With hundreds of thousands of basketball games to bet on each year, the sport of basketball is a big part of many professional bettors gameplan.
This article will focus on how to bet on basketball, specifically when it comes to basketball moneyline bets.
The following tips and guidelines apply to any form of moneyline betting on basketball.
Whether it is college, NBA, or International basketball games, these betting basics are vital to understand before putting down your money on a moneyline bet.
Influential moneyline variables
There is no simpler bet than the moneyline bet. A moneyline bet is betting on the winner of the game, disregarding the point spread and over/under lines.
The first thing to consider when betting on a basketball moneyline is what is going to influence the outcome of the game the most.
When betting the moneyline, there are a number of variables that are vital to understand before placing bets.
Here are a couple of those essential details that should be checked out prior to placing money on a moneyline result.
When looking to place a moneyline bet on basketball, the first thing that should be examined is the statistical breakdown of the matchup on hand.
While there is not a set of specific stats that will always correctly predict basketball games, many professional bettors do have their favorite stats to compare.
Here is a list of stats that can easily be studied, compared, and applied leading up to a basketball game.
It is worth noting that while these stats can help predict a matchup, these stats will also hold different weight when applying them to different levels of basketball.
For example, home court advantage is typically more influential in college than it is in the NBA.
Keep this in mind when breaking down statistics for the different basketball competitions around the world.
Common statistics refers to the top layer of statistical analysis.
This includes the researching of a team’s average and ranking in points scored per game, points allowed per game, field goal, three throw, and three-point percentages, defensive and offensive rebounds, turnovers, steals, and blocks.
Studying these stats will lead to the discovery of mismatches, which will assist you in the search of reliable moneyline bets.
Some examples of obvious mismatches would be if an NBA matchup featured the second ranked rebounding team against the 23rd place rebounding team.
Even without team names, it’s obvious that there is at least one statistical mismatch between these squads.
Finding these statistical mismatches is an ideal way to start breaking down a basketball moneyline betting line.
Home court advantage
The stats are pretty clear about home court advantage : It’s a real thing.
In fact, it is overwhelmingly real, as the following stats prove.
Over the span of the 2018/19 season, only 17.39% of NCAAB teams failed to win at 50% or more of their home games.
The other 285 teams went on to win at least half of their home games, with 132 of those teams going on to win 75% or better playing at home , eight of which finished the season undefeated at home.
This shows absolute dominance by home teams in college basketball, a trend that has been present for quite some time.
Home court advantage is much more noticeable in the college game, but playing at home proves to have it’s advantages as well.
The 2018/19 NBA season saw just seven teams win less than 50% of their home games.
Exactly half of the teams in the league (15) were able to win 60% or more of their home games, proving the importance of this trend.
Considering this trend spans from college ball to the NBA, home court advantage is undoubtedly one of the bigger stats to consider before placing a wager.
When betting the moneyline, always consider the team playing at home.
It is always advised to steer clear of placing too much money on a team with a tricky matchup away from home.
One data set that can sometimes be neglected is coaching matchups. Anyone can know the big name players in the NBA and NCAA and tell you their style of play, but can they do the same with the coaches of these teams?
Understanding coaching matchups is huge when betting on the moneyline of a basketball game.
These coaching matchups can easily have just as much, if not more of an impact on the pace and outcome of the game as the players.
For example, Houston Rockets coach Mike D’Antoni is known for his small-ball style of basketball.
His coaching style brings a distinctive style to his team and how they play, which matches up well against some opposing coaching styles, and not so well against others.
Each moneyline betting line has a coaching matchup behind it, so make sure to check up on that if you’re trying to be as accurate as possible.
Famous sports bettor Bob Voulgaris credited much of his betting success to his ability to know certain NBA coaches so well that he knew what they would do in certain situations.
Voulgaris made a killing on live betting games being coached by Eddie Jordan, Jerry Sloan, and Byron Scott.This intuition led to Voulgaris becoming one of the most profiting bettors in sports betting history.
We’re not saying that knowing the coaches of a matchup is going to reproduce these kinds of legendary results, but it will up your basketball moneyline betting game without a doubt.
These are just a few of many stats that we recommend breaking down before placing a moneyline bet.
As you begin to analyse stats, you are likely to stumble across your own indicating stats that help predict moneyline betting lines, some of which aren’t mentioned above.
Injury reports & other absences
One of the most simple but influential variables that will affect basketball moneylines is an updated injury report of both teams of a matchup being bet on.
There is nothing worse than placing a moneyline bet on a certain team just to find out that their leading scorer is out with an injury.
On the flip side of this, knowing who is out and how the absence will affect the game has the potential to work in favor of the bettor.
Injuries aren’t the only thing that will keep a player out of a game, so be sure to check up on possible suspensions and other absences.
When betting on NBA moneyline bets, it is just as essential to get the latest information on any “workload management” situations that may be taking place.
Workload management is the phrase used to describe a players’ absence from a game simply to rest the player, as opposed to a forced absence, such as injury or suspension.
Big name players like Kawhi Leonard, Russell Westbrook, Kristaps Porzingis and many have already made headlines for missing games via workload management.
This topic is so important because typically it is the best, most impactful players that will miss games due to workload management, making it extremely vital to check on the workload management situation prior to betting on the moneyline.
Team form / Trends
One of the harder variables to record with numbers is a basketball team’s current form.
Form describes the level at which that team has performed over a certain period of time.
For example, a team in good form will be performing at a high level and likely coming off a streak of wins while a team in bad form will appear to be in a rough patch.
The best of teams can hit a bad dip in form, while some of the worst teams can go through patches of great form.
When betting on a moneyline, try to avoid betting on teams in impressive form, as well as steer clear from putting too much trust in teams who are in poor form.
Form is an attribute that has the potential to defy long term stats, as momentum going into a game can have massive impact, whether that momentum is good or bad.
One of the lesser known variables that could possibly help bet on basketball moneylines is the tracking of the line movement of a particular basketball game in question.
The line movement describes an altering of the betting line prior to the game starting.
An example of a moneyline line movement would be if the Los Angeles Lakers opened as (-200) moneyline favorites over the Houston Rockets (+155) 24 hours before the game.
By the time the game starts, the Lakers are now just a (-185) favorite, making Houston a (+140) underdog.
This line change indicates money coming in on the Rockets, which will usually be a bad sign for Lakers bettors and a good sign for those who went with the Rockets.
Line movements are quite common, and have the potential to help accurately predict moneyline outcomes.
For a more in-depth look at how line movement works and ways to avoid betting against this sharp money, check out our article on the topic here. (link)
There is no surefire formula to use when betting on the moneyline, but studying these variables and finding mismatches is a great start to finding a winning moneyline bet.
It is important to not only understand the basics given in this article, but to develop and maintain your own betting strategies and tactics when wagering on a basketball moneyline.
Once the basics of basketball moneyline bets are mastered, it may be time to try out a well-reviewed and trustworthy betting system.