How to Predict NBA Games – an in depth look.
With all of the starpower and storylines surrounding the NBA nowadays, it’s not hard to believe that it has jumped to one of the most popular professional sports in the world.
This popularity rise has made basketball one of the most favored sports to bet on, behind only football and soccer worldwide.
Before betting on basketball, it is essential to have a plan of action to be able to take advantage of the sportsbooks.
In this article, we cover some key techniques that will assist sports bettors in accurately predicting NBA moneyline, spread, and over/under bets.
There is no one right way to predict NBA games, but implementing a few of these tips together will improve your NBA betting game in no time.
Predicting NBA Moneyline Bets
The most popular type of bet that gamblers take on the NBA is a moneyline bet.
This means that the bettor is putting his money on one team winning the game.
With this type of bet, nothing else matters besides the winner of the game.
Each moneyline bet will have a favorite and an underdog, both being represented by their moneyline odds.
To predict the outcome of an NBA moneyline bet, the bettor would want to break down, or handicap, the matchup.
This means that the two teams who are going to be playing should be examined statically and personnel-wise.
While every sports handicapper will have a different formula, there are a few details that should be researched while breaking down a matchup:
- Team stats
To predict the moneyline result of a matchup, both teams’ stats should be studied.
Handicappers will want to find mismatches in these stats, such as an overpowering offense that can shoot it from deep coming up against a shaky defense that gives up a lot of three’s.
Team data that should be considered include points scored per game, shooting percentage, time of possession, turnovers, points given up per game, and other relevant stats.
- Individual player stats
On top of checking out each team and their stats, handicappers should be dissecting a matchup by knowing how individual players perform.
If a bettor is able to understand who the big contributors are and when and where they are most likely to perform, then predicting the moneyline of NBA matchups gets a whole lot easier.
- Coaching matchups
One aspect of an NBA game that is often overlooked is the coaching matchup.
The coaches of an NBA team can be just as influential as the players, making them a variable that should be considered.
Before placing a moneyline bet, make sure to do your research and check up on the history between the two head coaches involved.
Surprisingly, there is often times more of a link between coaches than one would think.
Predicting NBA Spread Bets
The spread is a point total that is assigned to the favorite and the underdog.
The favorite will have a (-) sign next to the spread line, while the underdog will have a (+) sign. For the favorite to cover the spread in an NBA game,
they must win by said spread amount or more, while an underdog has to finish the game within that spread line or better to cover the spread.
While the details used to predict moneyline bets can still be relevant, the following are more focused on predicting NBA spreads:
- Recent meeting stats
A stat that is one of the most widely used when handicapping spread lines is recent meeting statistics.
These are exactly what they sound like – a compilation of stats covering recent games between two teams.
This data is a good way to initially judge how the matchup might pan out next time, laying basis on what to look for in the upcoming game.
- Current form
In the NBA, how a team has played in their last five games can often predict the next game better than their season record.
In a league in which any team can beat any other team on a given night, recent form is essential when predicting the spread lines of NBA games.
- Relevance of game
One factor that has resulted in dozens of ruined bets is the importance of an NBA game.
Near the end of the season, many games might lose their relevance due to playoff situations.
This can heavily affect the spread betting lines, and is a detail that needs to be considered prior to placing a bet.
Before wagering on the spread, try to double check that both teams will be motivated and playing their best lineups.
The third most common NBA betting line is the over/under.
This betting line is the number of points that is expected to be scored in a given game, and it is up to the sports bettor to decide whether or not the game will have more or less points scored than the over/under line.
Predicting this line can be tricky, as the bettor has to consider the offensive and defensive performances of both teams.
While the tips given for predicting moneyline and spread bets can help, the following are more focused on accurately predicting over/under lines.
- Injury report
The most important thing to know before betting on an over/under NBA line is the personnel that will be playing.
It is essential to always be on top of the injury report of each team that you are planning to bet on.
There is nothing worse than betting on the over for an NBA game just to see that the leading scorers for both teams are going to miss the game with an injury!
- Schedules of competing teams
A detail that can be ignored by novice bettors is the schedule of an NBA team and the effect it can have on performance.
For example, a high scoring team might not be able to produce their usual performance if they are on the back stretch of a long road trip.
The NBA schedule is infamously busy, which can be overbearing for teams with a shallow roster.
Take a look at the recent schedule of both teams if you’re putting money on an NBA over/under line.
Live Betting NBA Games
The best way to predict NBA games is to actively watch and study the games while they are in action.
For bettors who have an eye for basketball and want to take advantage of their knowledge of the game, live betting is a viable option that can be profitable if executed correctly.
The betting lines change throughout a game, opening up endless new opportunities to try to take advantage of as a bettor.
Most reputable online sportsbooks offer live moneyline, spread, and over/under bets, and much more.
If predicting the game before it starts is difficult, live betting might be an alternative.
Tools and Resources for Predicting NBA Games
Take as much of the guesswork out of betting by getting down to the nitty gritty numbers. When used correctly, the following tools will go a long way in helping you accurately predict NBA games.
A leader in the online betting industry, oddsshark has offered high quality betting tools and data for years now.
With supercomputers predicting matchups to databases open for anyone’s use, oddsshark is a one-stop shop for all of your sports betting resource needs.
This website is dedicated to bringing users high quality betting statistics and information.
The site is a huge database that can be filtered through with any number of filters, allowing the user to do endless research before betting on anything.
This tool is tremendous for those looking to understand the deeper statistical site of sports betting.
- Personal resources
As you become a more seasoned bettor, you will begin to develop your own reliable sources for predicting NBA games.
This could be a unique stat website, insider twitter account, or any other tool that can be found and used for winning bets.
In addition, the most used and resourceful tool that a bettor can have is overall knowledge of the game they are betting on.
This means that if you are betting on the NBA, it is in your best interest to completely and fully understand the players, coaches, and their schemes, along with many other details about that particular league.
This knowledge will be the foundation of all NBA bets, and it should be built upon daily if you want to be a part of the small percentage of sports bettors that win in the long term.