Hi Folks, Heading into week 4 we are 5-4 or 55.5% in our NFL Over/under picks. We will look to improve that this week with our best top 5 picks.
Los Angeles Chargers versus Miami Dolphins
The Chargers come in at 1-2 having defeated the Colts and falling to the Lions and Texans.
Miami is 0-3, having been blown out by the Ravens, Patriots and Cowboys. The over/under for this game is at 44.
The Chargers are averaging 408 yards and 20 points per game, going against a horrendous Miami defense that has allowed 499 yards and 44 points per game.
Defensively for the Chargers, they have given up 364 yards and 21 points per game.
Although likely the weakest of the defenses the Dolphins will have faced so far, they are averaging just five points per game.
For the first time this season, the Dolphins will put up more than double digits in points.
However, that will still leave them in a blowout situation on the losing end.
The Chargers should be able to put up more than 30 against the Miami defense.
Go with the over 44 in this one.
PICK- OVER 44 UPDATE- Chargers 30, Dolphins 10. – LOST
Minnesota Vikings versus Chicago Bears
In this classic NFC north battle, the 2-1 Vikings head to Solider Field to take on the 2-1 Bears.
Minnesota got off to a fast start, taking down the Falcons, 28-12.
After a 21-16 loss to the Packers in Lambeau Field in week two, they got back on track at home, wiping out the Raiders, 34-14.
The Bears got off to a slow start offensively in week one against the Packers, losing by a 10-3 score.
The Bears bounced back with wins of 16-14 over the Broncos and 31-15 over the Redskins.
The over/under for this game is 38.
Offensively the Vikings have averaged 358 yards and 26 points per game going up against the Bears defense allowing 314 yards and 13 points per game.
The Bears have scored just 17 per game and 275 yards per game, but came on against the Redskins.
Minnesota still has one of the top defensive units in the league, allowing just 327 yards and 16 points per game.
This has all the feel of another typical “black and blue” division game.
Neither team cracks the 20-point barrier, therefore go with the “under”.
PICK- UNDER 38 Update Bear 16, Vikings, 6. – WON
New England Patriots versus Buffalo Bills
The surprise of the AFC East through the first three weeks has to be the Buffalo Bills, who are off to a 3-0 start after defeating the Jets, Giants and Bengals by scores of 17-16. 28-14, and 21-17.
They are averaging 391 yards and 22 points per game but will clearly be facing their toughest test of the season.
New England dismantled the Steelers in the opener, 33-3, pummeled the Dolphins by a 43-0 score and easily handled the Jets, 30-14.
They are averaging 35 points per game and 408 yards per contest.
Defensively the Patriots are allowing just under 200 yards total offense and six points per game.
Although solid defensively at 300 yards and 18 points per game, the Bills will likely have few answers to contain the Patriots for an entire game.
The feeling is that the Bills will be brought back to earth this week with the Patriots again scoring near 30 in a game going “over”.
PICK – OVER 42.5 Update Patriots 16, Bills 10 – LOST
Kansas City Chiefs versus Detroit Lions
The Chiefs are showing themselves to be the beasts of the AFC East after the first three games.
They took down the Jaguars by a 40-26 score in the opener and 28-10 over the Raiders in week two.
Kansas City passed their toughest test to date late week, narrowly defeating the Ravens by a score of 33-28.
Offensively, the Chiefs have tallied 487 yards per game while scoring 34 points per contest.
Not stout defensively, the Chiefs have surrendered nearly 400 yards per game but a solid 21 points.
The Lions started off with a 27-27 tie against the Cardinals and followed with consecutive wins against the Chargers at home and the Eagles on the road.
At 2-0-1 they are averaging 368 yards per game and 22 points per contest.
Defensively, the Lions have given up a fairly substantial 395 yards per game, which doesn’t bode well against the potent Kansas City attack.
However, the Lions have given up a solid 20 points per game, playing the classic “bend but not break” defense.
The “over/under” for this game is set at 54.
This is looking like a relatively high scoring game, but one that neither team will reach 30.
A score in the neighborhood of 28-24 or 28-21 favoring the Chiefs is the gut instinct, so go with the “under”.
PICK – UNDER 54 Update Chiefs 34 – Lions 30 – LOST
Jacksonville Jaguars versus Denver Broncos
The Jaguars got off to a slow start, losing quarterback Nick Foles in the first quarter in their 40-26 loss to the Chiefs in week one.
They also dropped one the Texans in week two by a 13-12 score before rebounding to take down the Titans, 20-17 to improve to 1-2 on the season.
Jacksonville has been solid but not spectacular on defense, giving up 365 yards and 20 points per game.
Their offensive output is slightly less at a mere 19 points and 334 yards per game.
Denver have dropped all three of their games so far, falling to the Raiders 24-16 in week one, 16-14 to the Bears in week two and 27-16 to the undefeated Packers last weekend.
The defense hasn’t been the biggest issues, allowing a solid 22 points and 314 yards per game.
However, the offense has yet to get on track, averaging a meager 15 points per game.
The “over/under” on this on is at 39, which seems a little low, even with two offenses that have yet to find their rhythm.
Jacksonville has faced two of the toughest defenses in the league thus far and should be able to muster up enough offense to score over 20.
Denver has also been challenged by the tough Bears and Packers defense, so they also will score more than their average output.
Therefore, look for a game going “over”.