Is there a reliable profitable Basketball Prediction Algorithm ?
In the day of AI and advanced computer technology, one would assume that their has been a creation that is able to successfully predict the outcome of sports, specifically the outcome of college basketball and NBA games.
This article takes a deeper look into this topic, revealing the truth behind the latest in basketball prediction algorithms and how they can work to assist your sports betting game.
What is a Basketball Prediction Algorithm?
A basketball prediction algorithm is meant to predict the outcome of basketball games by using predictive analytics.
SAS.com describes predictive analytics “the use of data, statistical algorithms and machine learning techniques to identify the likelihood of future outcomes based on historical data”.
In simpler terms, predictive algorithms looks at what happens, calculates this data, and applies the newfound knowledge to make a guess on what will happen next.
Each algorithm is set to read certain databases.
These databases are essential, as they are the information that is being used to predict the next outcomes.
An algorithm has the capability to process virtually endless demands as long as the maker of the algorithm has created it properly.
Algorithms can look at a result involving a certain team, player, coach, ref, and more…
as well as processing data from a certain timeframe or place.
The ability of an algorithm is truly limited to its coder and the database that it has access to.
How and why do Basketball Prediction Algorithms work?
A good algorithm works because of the data behind the decision making.
These algorithms are taking the guess-work out of betting, because they do all of the math for you.
With the proper data input, these algorithms are able to capture and produce any and all results that would be needed to place a bet on basketball.
For those who are looking for the nitty-gritty details about the ins and outs of the production of this algorithm,
a lengthy but detailed explanation can be found here.
Reader beware, as the link is filled with a couple terms that us sports bettors may have to look up in a coding textbook before totally comprehending the information.
Pros and Cons of using Basketball Prediction Algorithms
While basketball prediction algorithms are growing in popularity, it is important to know what the pros and cons of applying these algorithms can be.
- Speed of handicapping
The most obvious and useful ability that comes with the use of basketball prediction algorithms is the time saved by these tools.
Algorithms have the ability to crunch huge sets of numbers in a very short period of time, a duty that would previously had to be completed by the sports handicapper themselves.
- No bias factor involved
Whether we like to admit it or not, us sports bettors typically have certain bias when it comes to basketball teams and players.
Predictive algorithms act without bias, and only use the facts and numbers when it comes to determining an accurate prediction for future results.
As technology advances, it is important that your sports betting tools do to.
Prediction algorithms are a tool that has huge potential in the future, especially considering the growth of sports betting.
As mobile sports betting becomes a bigger part of the betting industry, these predictive algorithms will be able to be used in an application form.
- Data can’t account for variables
Unless the databases used are extremely well-equipped, it is hard to find one that is able to process the many variables that comes with betting on basketball games.
While a prediction algorithm can be handy over the long run, it may not be the best tool to rely on in certain games that involve impactful variables.
This would include basketball games in which key players or even coaches are missing,
or games that are not as important as the algorithm would account for (I.e. NBA regular season games before the playoffs).
- New trends can be missed
Predictive algorithms can be useful for predicting things based on trends of the past, but new trends will typically be difficult for a prediction algorithm to pick up.
While it is totally dependent on the datasets being used for the algorithm,
most basic predictive algorithms will be unable to notice a hot streaking team who is outperforming their usual output,
or a team who may be unmotivated and going cold near the end of the season.
These trends are typically easier to pick up by using observant logic and reasoning, and not numerical data.
How accurate are Basketball Prediction Algorithms?
When considering exactly how accurate these prediction algorithms are, it’s important to understand what is considered to be a successful algorithm.
Ideally, these algorithms will have to predict basketball results at a 55% or better, as this is typically the standard held to bettors who are looking to remain profitable over the long term.
If you have an algorithm that accurately selects basketball OVER/UNDER winners at a rate of 55% or better, you have yourself a highly successful algorithm.
Each predictive algorithm is different though. These algorithms are often using different databases and are calculating for different time periods.
There are some algorithms are more accurate than others, as many betting sharks claim to have access to unbeatable algorithms.
Many of the best fantasy basketball players also affirm that their success is a result of quality predictive algorithms.
Are there any current algorithms that are successful?
The idea of a working algorithm for betting on basketball is ideal, but not always easy to obtain.
Finding an algorithm that works consistently is hard to do, and usually takes some personal tinkering.
There are plenty of OVER/UNDER predictors out their that will give a very basic prediction…
but the best and most reliable tools are not going to be found for free on the internet.
Instead, we recommend creating your own functioning algorithm, as you will be able to include as many little details and variables as you may desire.
For more on just how simply creating your own basketball predicting algorithm, click here for a guide.