Is there a reliable OVER/UNDER betting system for basketball?
For many sports bettors, basketball is there sport of choice.
Whether it’s betting on NCAA, NBA, or international basketball, sports bettors are finding all kinds of ways to beat the bookie and make winning bets.
Today, we take a look at one of the most reliable ways that the OVER/UNDER in basketball can be bet for profit, and if this tactic is reliable in the long run.
NBA Over/under betting is probably the most popular so please check out out full guide to NBA Over/unders here.
Most popular OVER/UNDER betting system and its reliability
This betting technique is a very simple strategy that is easy to use.
This tactic takes the average OVER/UNDER of a team in their recent games, and uses this information to find the most winnable betting line offered by the sportsbook.
The only data that is needed to use this technique is the recent results from the two teams who are playing in the game in which you are looking to bet.
Trend betting takes a look at a set number of a certain category of games for the two teams playing and uses this data to find vulnerable OVER/UNDER lines from sportsbooks that can be taken advantage of by the bettor. The other option would be to create your own basketball prediction algorithm
After finding these averages, the bettor will be able to use the averages and compare them to the OVER/UNDER line.
If the average data is significantly lower or higher than the offered OVER/UNDER line, the bettor should consider placing a bet if they like the matchup.
To best explain this strategy, a hypothetical example of a game between the Lakers and Warriors will be used.
Let’s say that the Lakers are playing at home against the Warriors, and that the OVER/UNDER of this game was set at 205.
To use the trend average betting tactic, the bettor would simply break this game down into multiple categories…
which would call for an observation of the last 10-12 games played by the Lakers and Warriors, taking the average of their point totals in these games.
For our example, the Lakers averaged 106.7 points scored in their last 10 games, while the Warriors averaged 107.2. Make sure to have this number ready to apply.
Next, the bettor will want to break down the last 10-12 home games played by the Lakers, as well as the last 10-12 away games for the Warriors.
Golden state averaged 105.4 in their last 10 games on the road, while LA averaged 108.5 in their last 10 home games.
Now, simply find the average of the two categories used:
Last 10 games (106.7 ppg) + last 10 home games (108.5 ppg) = 215.2
215.2 / 2 = 107.6
Golden State Warriors :
Last 10 games (107.2 ppg) + last 10 home games (105.4 ppg) = 212.6
212.6 / 2 = 106.3
With your two averages, simply add them together, comparing this total to the OVER/UNDER given by the sportsbooks.
In our example, our average trends of the Lakers (107.6 ppg) and the Warriors (106.3 ppg) would add up to 213.9 points…
almost nine points over the bookie OVER/UNDER line of 205.
This would be a line that would be worth an over bet, as the data fits the criteria of an over bet with a good chance of hitting.
As a bettor, there will be many times in which the numbers will end up being over or under the total, but you must be patient and find the biggest difference between your trending average and the OVER/UNDER line.
The more room between these numbers, the more likely you are to hit your winning bet.
While we only took a look at the last 10 games and the last 10 home/away games, sports bettors using this strategy often find their own unique categories to calculate and use.
The possibilities are wide open when using this strategy, allowing the bettor to find their own trends on top of using the simple tactic used above.
As for the reliability of this strategy, it is hard to put a percentage on how success.
This tactic is one of the most statistically grounded techniques that can be used, and is often much more effective that going “off your gut feeling” or betting on other feelings.
This strategy is used with numbers and stats, which are exempt from emotion, which is always useful while betting on the OVER/UNDER in basketball.
Alternate strategies for OVER/UNDER betting
While this tactic is one of the most useful technique to use before a game, Live Betting is another option for those looking to take advantage of an eye-catching Total line.
Live betting is the act of making a bet while the game is being played. This option gives the bettor an advantage in the fact that they will be able to watch parts of the game before placing a wager.
When used properly, this can be very beneficial to the bettor, especially when betting on the Total in a basketball game.
Examples that live betting would be helpful with OVER/UNDER betting
A game that has a low OVER/UNDER line that has a very fast start with a lot of points scored
Many times, these games that were expected to be low scoring by the bookies are going to end up low scoring.
Bettors should be looking to take advantage of the fast start by jumping on the bookies adjusted lines.
These adjusted lines will project a live OVER/UNDER betting line that is inflated compared to the original line, which can be beneficial and easy to take advantage of if the situation is right.
Of course, it is still important to consider the teams and players playing for each situation.
A game that has a high OVER/UNDER line that has a really slow start with few points scored
Much like the previous tactic, this strategy relies on an abnormal start in a basketball game.
Some other live betting tactics to use with OVER/UNDER betting rely on factors in the game, such as blowouts and player injuries.
Both of these different factors can have a very influential part in the OVER/UNDER line.
For example, coaches will often put in their second-string players in a game when the game has turned into a blowout.
Typically these games end up with less points, since the most effective players are not playing as much as they usually.
When these things do occur, live betting allows the bettor to take advantage, but timing is key!
Overall, OVER/UNDER betting can be a very useful option, especially if you are equipped with effective tactics.
Although the strategies above are not flawless, they can be useful when applied properly, assisting you as you attempt to make a profit betting on basketball.
As always, these betting tactics will rely on the player and the bankroll of the player.
FOLLOWING THE LINE
The line can reveal some good information when it comes to over/under betting in basketball –
It can also depend on the bookie you choose to bet with. Back in the 90’s, professional sports bettor and author BoB Mcune wrote extensively on how he beat NBA totals.
At on stage he noticed that bookies were adjusting the line in reaction to sharp money.
Specifically on the final significant move before game time. For example, if the Line jumped for 198 to 200 hed take the over.
If the line moved from 200 to 197 take the UNDER. Bob said it hit to the tune of 55% in its hey day.
Since the line usually comes from pinnacle, and they have low limits when shaping that line, it can be trickier.
If you can find and monitor lines from books who dont exclusively use the pinnacle line, it may be useful to monitor.